Stem’s Influence on Corporate Innovation and Recruitment

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) curriculum and talent management strategies have been acknowledged as critical success factors for individuals, organizations, and societies for several years. Like many new concepts, STEM strategies will evolve and change over time as developments in techniques, technology, implementation and verifiable results are established for others to emulate. In this article, we explore some progress in strategies to develop and source current and future STEM talent. The term STEM has expanded to STEAM, and the next maturity will be STEEM. STEAM adds the Arts and STEEM adds Entrepreneurialism to STEM development and training.

STEM is defined as anyone involved in the study, education, practice, or commercial application in the aforementioned areas. These disciplines may be engaged individually or in combination to qualify as STEM. An example of STEM may be an MRI Technician in healthcare (science and technology), a Supply Chain Manager in retail or e-commerce (science, technology, engineering, math), or a Data Scientist or Analyst (technology and math). Essentially, many of the global high-demand and unmet jobs are in STEM related fields and play a key role in the sustained growth and stability of the economy.

Future sourcing will introduce new strategies targeting students in Kindergarten through 12th grade, in addition to trade school, and university graduates at various levels. Many Millennial and Generation Z  (born after 2000) high school graduates with STEM skills will go directly into some of these in-demand jobs, and pursue any additional required management or analytical skills through on-the-job training (OJT) or community college and university studies while working. STEM, as both a developmental and sourcing activity will also extend beyond the traditional academic environment into other areas where innovation and creativity is being nurtured. Many organizations, like the Fleet Science Center in San Diego, CA have developed collaborative strategies to combine all STEM related stakeholders under one umbrella or pyramid group to enhance more effective outcomes. Whereas Johnson and Johnson and Intel, increased their focus-on developing women in STEM disciplines, traditionally filled by men, through partnerships with universities and diversity funds to increase the number of women entering into STEM fields.  

Larry Ellison, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg , and Michael Dell would probably tell you that academic attainment is not necessarily a prerequisite to determining success–they all left college to found very successful organizations. Also, in a fast-paced, data driven, and ever-changing world-a 15-year old may have more ‘years of experience’ with recent advances in technology than a 35 year-old adult. 

While the technology sector has been the most popular discipline chosen by STEM workers, there still remain a large number of unfilled jobs in all disciplines. Engineers, economists, data analysts, environmentalists, physicians, chemists, and many other jobs like welders, pipe fitters, and mechanics are needed; however, individuals with at least some college tend to have more opportunities.

In the last few years, STEM has evolved into STEAM conceptually but has been slow to develop steam practically. STEAM adds artistic abilities to the STEM disciplines. Funding for these projects has been added to the STEM financial pipeline in many states. Professor Bowon Kim of South Korea’s Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) indicated that many South Korean executives trained in STEM learning are now expected to take courses in humanities, history, art, and meditation to support their ability to make relational connections using broader theoretical causality.

Like STEM, a causal analysis of STEAM not gaining traction to date may be due to the US long-standing lack of appreciation for artistic endeavors, with entertainment as an exception. In defining STEAM, the best measure of this profile would be Leonardo da Vinci and more recently Dr. Dre. Yes, Dr. Dre of Compton, CA. First, Da Vinci fused his drawing and painting to enhance STEM and vice-versa. His understanding of geometry and engineering supported the creation of the Mona Lisa and Last Supper paintings, as well as Gran Cavallo. Although not a physician, Da Vinci identified the first cases of atherosclerosis by drawing and comparing the internal organs of corpses to determine cause of death scenarios, and also advanced his medical findings, using art and science, into The Vitruvian Man.

Comparatively, rap artists in the 20th century evolved into new 21st century technologies like Beats by Dre and other business ventures from Will.i.am of The Black Eye Peas, as Director of Creative Innovation for Intel Corporation, and founder of i.am.STEAM, a car company, etc.

The next level development of STEM is currently in the conceptual stage. STEEM will incorporate entrepreneurialism in K-12 education along with STEM technical skills. Students will learn supply chain and patent-trade mark philosophy as part of their course curriculum, probably at community or 2-year colleges. Their developed value characteristics will include inspiration, perspiration, and perseverance. Collaboration and association will be central to their project management principles. Their operating mode will be sourcing for data and ideas globally to achieve reduction to practice. Initially, family members and venture capitalists will desire to support these innovators financially and organizationally instead of corporations-corporations will be driven to source STEEM trained professionals out of necessity. STEEM students will be developed to compete with and not join corporate teams, thereby eroding the STEM talent base for organizations while simultaneously increasing a nation’s GDP.

The profile for STEEM is Thomas Edison, The Wizard of Menlo Park, NJ. Edison learned most importantly how to use other brains, ideas, and knowledge to build-on and advance technologies. His true expertise was not inventing, but knowledge management, finance, and supply chain. STEEM trained individuals represent the skill sets CEO’s will desire most in resolving knowledge management and global supply chain challenges and uncertainties in the future.

STEEM will gain popularity equal to and beyond the previously mentioned STEM-type programs primarily because it is more closely related to theories around capitalism, intellectual capital, job creation, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Essentially, organizations that are positioned to win the war for STEM talent and maintain a competitive advantage will need to develop recruitment and talent management strategies designed to attract Millennial and Generation Z- STEAM and STEEM workers and implement engagement strategies to develop and retain them.

 

The New Panama Canal and its Impact on Supply Chain and Recruitment

Identifying patterns and shifts in trade and economic activity are critical to organizational success. And, as the saying goes- “failing to plan is planning to fail”.

Two years ago our leadership visited Panama City, Panama to tour the development of the new sets of locks at the Panama Canal and the development at the Colon Free Trade Zone because we realized the impact this expansion will have on global trade, supply chain and STEM recruitment. The expansion of the Panama Canal began in 2007, and is finally expected to open on June 26, 2016 after a two-year delay and at a cost $5.3 billion, with cost over-runs projected to bring the total to $7 billion. This expansion is expected to significantly impact logistic economies of scale, US and global transportation routes, warehousing and distribution locations, and ultimately, a shift in the need for STEM trained professionals in supply chain.

 The New Panama Canal

The term post-panamax is simply used to identify changes taking place after the expansion of the Panama Canal. One of these changes is the ability to allow very large or post-panamax vessels to enter the Panama Canal after the expansion. The new sets of locks represent a significant engineering accomplishment that, in simple terms, raises the level of water-in an environmentally friendly way-in the shallower and rocky canal waterway to allow large vessels to traverse the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These post-panamax container ships will enable global transporters of goods to ship two to three times the amount of merchandise on a single ship. Prior to the Panama Canal expansion, vessels proceeding through the canal were limited to 5,000 TEU’s (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Container Units) whereas the post-panamax vessels will enable 13,000 TEU’s.

To describe the size of these post-panamax ships better, imagine the length and width of a National Football League field (360 by 160 feet), where these ships are over 3 times the length and equal in width. The hull is the part of the ship underwater. So current ports, primarily on the east coast, under 50 feet in port depth have to be dredged to a minimum of 50 feet plus in order to receive these new large vessels.

Product transit through the Panama Canal from Asia is generally destined for the south or eastern regions in the US-traversing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. However, almost two-thirds of product from Asia to the US is currently landing at west coast ports and traveling east and south via train and truck transportation modes. Train is the cheapest mode for container transportation, but trucks are more popular. Intermodal transportation combines the use of both train and truck to reach a desired destination.

After June 26, 2016, these large vessels, currently docking at west coast ports will now be able to travel directly to east coast ports from Asia, thereby reducing transportation costs for manufacturers and distributors. The US Department of Commerce, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) and C.H. Robinson project a potential 10-15% shift in US supply chain economics between US east and west coast ports by 2020 based on various scenarios. Post-Panamx vessels traveling directly to eastern ports may reduce transportation costs by 4%, but slower by 11 days, if product arriving on the east coast- destined for Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, or Memphis-arrives on the east vs. west coast ports.

A 4% savings in transportation costs equals billions of dollars in savings for International and US companies. The issue of time sensitive goods-like perishable foods and expensive products-may outweigh cost savings depending on type of product, seasonality and other factors. However, reducing costs, as we know, is always a prime imperative in corporations. And CFO’s will be challenged to find ways to take advantage of these significant cost reduction opportunities.

According to BCG, the competition in the end will not be about east coast versus west coast ports, but rather between east coast ports. Where a 15% shift in US GDP, resulting from an increase in merchandise entering at east coast ports, will amount to an increase in trillions of dollars in goods and billions in services over the next 5 years.

In preparation for the Panama Canal expansion, billions of dollars have already been invested by both private and public sectors in anticipation of the Post-Panamax Era.

The Bayonne Bridge in New Jersey was raised at a cost of $1.3 billion. Port Miami completed dredging, tunnel and infrastructure developments in 2014 estimated at $3.1 billion, and other projects are taking place at numerous east coast ports. 3PL (Third Party Logistics) facilities are being built along major interstate highways. Charleston, SC and Savannah, GA ports will probably merge under a single ‘port authority’ like NY and NJ did decades ago. 

Companies will need to decide if they want to add additional warehouses and distribution centers on the east coast, use 3PL, or wait to see what effects the Panama Canal will have. The latter option will negatively impact operating earnings in an organization, due to inertia. Conversely, there are concerns about over-building at east coast ports due to all of the uncertainties and variables involved in this major economic shift.

The Impact of Supply Chain

So what is Supply Chain?

In the simplest terms, it represents 85% of everything you are looking at right now. Almost every product that gets to you came through a supply chain process. It may also be described as the process which takes place from conception of a product idea to delivering that product to the end-user. This process may include all or some business sectors and disciplines like design, manufacturing, sales, services, and reinvention.

Essentially, supply chain is foundational to both service and manufacturing based economies. Without supply chain there is nothing to service, and nothing gets produced or distributed. The 2015 Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) State of Logistics Report indicated that supply chain represented $1.45 trillion, or 8.3% of US GDP in 2014. However, this amount only represents transportation, warehousing, and administrative costs.

Oxford Dictionary defines supply chain as “the sequence of processes involved in the production and distribution of a commodity”. Therefore, if manufacturing, marketing, and sales are added to transportation and warehousing, supply chain may be the dominant economic industry sector in the US economy. The wholesale, retail, and ecommerce industry sectors are essentially supply chain organizations.

The American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) indicates that the economic impact of ports in the US is significant. US ports are primarily funded by the federal government to create jobs and facilitate international trade through imports and exports. In an expanding global economy, US ports become even more important. According to AAPA, US ports directly or indirectly created 23.1 million employment opportunities for Americans in 2014, including 21.4 million jobs in export and import related activities. Waterborne commercial activities accounted for approximately $4.6 trillion overall to the US economy. These same businesses paid $321.1 billion in federal, state, and local taxes and US ports accounted for $41 billion federal, state, and local tax revenues in 2014.

So, if 15% of US GDP may shift from products arriving on the west coast to east coast, will this transformation have an effect on the supply chain human resources required to take advantage of the impact that the Panama Canal expansion may have?

Growth in STEM Recruitment

Supply chain is STEM. It is robotics, 3D Printing, advanced manufacturing, energy and marine biology (science). It is an ever-changing utilization of multiple software applications (technology). It requires mechanical, electrical, and aviation engineers (engineering). The purchasing and planning of products involves very sophisticated algebraic and calculus formulas to determine what, when, how, and where to buy supplies and products (math).

Like many STEM professions, they are in short supply. However, supply chain has many other human resource complexities. STEM supply chain training and academics has not kept pace with development in other STEM professions. Supply chain university relations and recruitment models are non-existent to limited. Supply chain’s reputation is not sexy, as a desired profession by millennial. The military will not provide as much human resource as it has previously because we have not been as militarily engaged over the last 6 years. Dock workers are highly unionized and have frequent labor relation issues. Supply chain managers and executives are more aged than other STEM managers and executives. Ecommerce’s continuing influence will alter supply chain dynamics.

In the near future, technological innovation like robotics, 3D Printing, drone delivery planes and autonomous delivery trucks will ultimately replace many human jobs in supply chain. However, in the short-term people will be the driving force in moving product and operating and maintaining the new technologies.

Supply chain will always require global association and collaboration, responsiveness, sophisticated technology and software, very high customer service levels, innovation, and superior organization and planning. These are ‘safe’ human supply chain job functions in the long and short-term.

The DOL (Department of Labor) estimates a need for 255,000 supply chain managers between 2014-2024. Over 700,000 long haul truck drivers, 167,000 custom brokers, 135,000 mechanical and robotics engineers. Many other supply chain STEM professionals will be needed as well during this period.

So, while many organizations are evaluating and trying to predict where and what regional ports will benefit the most, how much GDP shift will occur, who is over or under-building, etc? I ask; WHY not follow the formula that ultimately makes any expansion or project successful and reduces risk. That is the quality and quantity of human resources available to process and move products efficiently off the post-panamax ships and to its destination. Whichever regional port area is best at this function will reap the financial benefits of the post-panamax era. Company supply chain executives will use time and cost as their decision criteria for determining where they want their products to arrive on the east coast. They will deliver to ports nearest to their facility or 3PL that can off-load the fastest. The Panama Canal expansion and post-panamax vessels will reduce transportation costs, but well-trained STEM supply chain human resources will increase efficiencies, reduce time and risk, and add to increased profits.

In addition, this author is predicting that future trends in the selection of CEO’s will emanate from the supply chain function. The current trend of selecting CFO’s into the top position will only continue if the CFO is also adept at supply chain.

The post-panamx era has begun. Is your organization ready?

 

TFP: The New Productivity Model

TFP (Total Factor Productivity), also referred to as MFP (Multi Factor Productivity) can be thought of as a measure of level of technology or knowledge.

TFP or MFP evolved from OECD research over 15 years ago, which was based-on a realization that the major contributor to a nations GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was now technology and knowledge. TFP estimates that 60% of a nation’s economy derives from these components. Internal efficiencies and innovation born from knowledge and technology, under this theory, now outweigh labor and investment as key drivers of a business or economy.

However, from a historical perspective this is not new. Knowledge diffusion has always changed the world and nation’s fortunes. Whether it was Egyptian agricultural innovations, the smelting of iron, Greek theory, Roman military prowess and legal doctrine, religion, Moorish science, steam powered vehicles and equipment, or the transistor-these transformative events have occurred throughout history.

In each instance the “blue ocean” effect gave an advantage to the nation or business introducing the new technology, but it is knowledge diffusion which balances the effect of innovation, once other nations and businesses acquire the same techniques, skills and knowledge driving economic growth.

Additionally, in each of these transformative or renaissance periods, both technology and knowledge altered the modes of production.

In TFP, the mode of production is still human capital and technology as value added input with increased output being generated from both embodied and disembodied investment capital and intelligence. This simply means that organizational brain power, learning capacity, understanding, problem-solving and kinesthetic endurance equals intelligence and intuition resulting in innovation as output of product. Disembodied intelligence also results in increased earnings generated by lower investments in research and development, administrative and consulting fees and other costs associated with generating output. In TFP these costs are reduced because organizations utilize their human resources at a higher productivity level than their competitors.

The human brain within organizations will become the primary means of productivity in a service economy. HR will become the ultimate driver of productivity in service industries.

Transforming to a knowledge economy will place HR professionals not only in a seat at the table, but in some cases in the driver’s seat. However, HR will need to be adept at cultural alignment, change management, development of knowledge workers, and measuring productivity, largely because the understanding of disembodied intelligence will begin with HR.

The Knowledge Hierarchy or DIKW (data, information, knowledge, wisdom) causal model is validated for data and information being accumulated and delivered through computers at massive amounts. The knowledge and wisdom or intelligence output is where HR talent will have both their opportunities and challenges.

If your organization has decided to move in this direction, some considerations are as follows:

Are the value, culture and climate of organization aligned with a knowledge economy business strategy?

Is your matrix structure designed to deliver collaborative results through dynamic teaming?

Do you have the appropriate systems, processes and procedures to implement this strategy?

How may Knowledge Workers do you currently employ?

Have you performed an audit or climate survey?

While these are some beginning thoughts, the road to transformation can be as exhilarating as the thrill of victory, or the alternate scenario- if as a profession, we fail to prepare to take advantage of this opportunity presenting itself to us to persuade, influence, and direct organizational advancements now and in the future through knowledge and technological innovations emanating from human resources.

Changing Trends in Our Global World: Aging Populations

There has been a distinct and dramatic demographic shift taking place in our world since 1950. In 1950, 15% of the world’s population was aged 5 years or younger. In contrast those aged 65 and over represented 5% of the world population. In 2020, these numbers will have moved significantly. Global population aged 5 and under will be at 10%, while those aged 65 and over will be 12%. Projections for 2050 are age 5 at 8%, and age 65 plus at 15%.

The global implications are tremendous in understanding economic policy decisions, social services, and political change emanating from this and other demographic shifts. As the world gets older, it will also become more populated. In 2050, the global population will reach 9.7 billion inhabitants, of which 15% will be over 65 years old.

The majority of these 5 year olds will not be of European decent. They will be people of color from Asia and mostly Africa. This is due to social and economic shifts born from capitalism, industrialism, and the information age. In western societies, accumulation of wealth, improved healthcare, smaller households with 1-2 children, etc. are contrasted with societies in Africa living in agricultural economies, with the lowest healthcare standards and large households averaging 5-6 children, according to the CIA World Fact Book. As a result, the former gets older and less populous as the latter gets younger and experiences massive population gains.

Another consideration resulting from this demographic shift will regard natural resources. As middle class populations grow in India and China, they will consume more of their own and other nations resources. As Africa adds more than 1 billion humans over the next two generations, they will obviously absorb more of the planets food, water, and other matter. Simultaneously, dominant minerals shift from oil to lithium, fresh water deposits become more scarce, and Asia, Oceana, and Africa comprise 80% of the world population.

The nations richest in both human and natural resources will establish the setting and functions from which the world will operate as we enter the twenty-second century.

As we move through this twenty-first century, we will need to obey the force which this demographic shift intends a purposeful conclusion to unite all humankind in humanitarian thinking benefiting one global circumference. This thinking will necessitate acknowledging unlimited needs as a foundation of our perspectives and beliefs. Unlimited needs like sharing our human and natural resources while also caring for one planet and all humans within one family circle. Unlimited needs like learning and utilizing the additional 2.5 billion new brains in an ethical manner to meet the primary needs of our world. Unlimited needs like belonging and collaborating together through the most powerful unlimited need which is love.

 

Causality: Because, Why and How

“We possess scientific knowledge of a thing only when we know its cause.”

 

-Aristotle

 

Change as a By-Product of Cause and Effect

As part of a change management model, causality includes an understanding of history and culture, as we have already explored in the previous sections. In this chapter we will explore how analysis of current forces impacts the need for change through causality. In change management theory this is referred to as environmental scanning in which you evaluate the external forces operating positively and negatively as an influence to develop a strategy for change. The environmental scanning is also a mechanism to identify trends that will develop into opportunities to reach organizational, societal and individual goals.

I define causality as follows; evolution of a phenomenon is driven by forces (causes) and consequences resulting from these forces (effects). This cause and effect is also known as causality, where cause and effect stand in reciprocal relation to each other. Causality is that which is made to become. The cause becomes an effect, and the effect becomes a consequence or force impact on something.

Causality seeks to look at the origin of things, or how they came into being, to provide a clearer perspective or view on the things effects. Most of us have had this experience when we visit a physician. Many times a physician will look for effects, like blood pressure and heart rate readings, and if abnormality exists they will look for cause.

For example, if your blood pressure is high and your physician has already prescribed medication, the physician may ask, “Are you taking your medication?” The physician started with the blood pressure as effect, and then looks for cause. If you enter with an illness, the physician may use technology to diagnose or determine cause and relating factors. Illness is the effect, and then the physician will seek to understand cause. With either technique, the diagnosis is a causality method.

In Morgan Jones book, The Thinkers Toolkit, he states, “All events in life are the results, the outcomes, of previous events. Life itself is a collage of ecological cycles, all intertwining, mingling, overlapping, sharing and competing, all linked together in countless ever-evolving chains of cause and effect relationships.” Likewise, every problem we analyze is the product of a definable cause and effect system.(105)

In other words, the effect of our past actions has caused our current state. How we perceive our current state will affect our future.

Change management tools like causal flow diagramming, to identify cause and effect relationships, have led to computerized analytical tools which can identify similarity in relationships from billions of sets of data in a few seconds, making it easier to analyze the ‘ecological cycles’ described by Morgan Jones above. These types of computer applications automatically speed change because they speed information flow and analysis.

When evaluating causality, it is also important not to confuse causes with symptoms. Addressing symptoms is necessary. In change, you want to impact the causes of the problem or issue, and the effects and symptoms will reciprocate. There may be many instances where you will need to address both symptoms and causes as described by Chris Argyris single-loop and double loop learning concepts. However, if causal effects are not ameliorated, the consequences will return. This is like treating a fever and not addressing the infection that caused the fever. The fever is a symptom and the infection is the cause. In this case you have to address both symptom and cause. This is a form of integrated learning.(4)(27)

Empiricism of Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

Sir Francis Bacon was a sixteenth and seventeenth century English philosopher who transitioned the Renaissance to the modern era in natural philosophy. Bacon understood that there will always be forces in our environments that create uncertainty and fear, and that these forces are also often uncontrollable in the change or impact that the force will impose. However, he also synthesized that with the appropriate mindset a force, however imposing, may be commanded to benefit the thing that it is impacting. He succinctly summed this philosophy in the phrase, “You have to obey the forces you want to command.”

Sir Francis Bacon’s quote, “You have to obey the forces you want to command”, is central to strategy development, uncertainty and problem solving. He also established the familiar phrase “Knowledge is power”. Clearly, Sir Francis Bacon’s thinking on knowledge of forces is applicable today and represents a futurist mindset from approximately 450 years in the past.

As part of strategy development, in 1979, Michael Porter’s business model in change management expanded on Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) using external and internal analysis to specifically evaluate five areas that he believed were critical forces that a business needs to understand (obey) and have a strategy to address any unforeseen issues (command), as these forces were critical to organizational sustainability. Sir Francis Bacon would indicate that, once identified and understood, the strategy is driven by these forces by obeying them, then commanding them by following along with the force and not against the force.

To illustrate this ideology using an example, I was vacationing on Kauai, Hawaii’s Poipu beach and had swum out far into the ocean and discovered there was dangerous reef below me. The currents kept moving me farther down the beach shore. As I struggled to swim against the current, I gained little ground in getting back to shore and my body was getting tired of trying to swim against the force of the current created by nature and the ocean. Fortunately, some surfers saw me struggling, and helped me get back to shore. When I landed back on the beach one of them told me to:

“Never swim against the current of the ocean.”

t it is always better to go along with this force and eventually it would bring me to shore.”

I believe nature has many lessons for humankind, if we respect its force and study the dynamic processes, we will receive the answers to many of our current problems and goals.

In this case I did not understand or obey the force that was operating against me, so I could not command it.

In 1979, Michael Porter’s model focuses on helping organizations identify their competitive niche in the external environment by seeking a profitable industry and competing effectively in it. He referred to this as the Industrial Organizational Model or I/O model, suggesting that “the conditions and characteristics of the forces in the external environment are the primary determinants of successful strategies that will help organizations earn above average profits.”

Many organizations use this concept in business. In the current global economic environment, individuals and communities need to use it as well.

Michael Porter also indicated this process starts with a competitor analysis in evaluating other firms operating within the firms industry. This assessment represents an external SWOT analysis to determine what the competition is strategically planning within their industry. Is the competition expanding or downsizing, are they providing new or improved prices or benefits, etc.? As part of this external audit of forces, the future objectives, current strategies, assumptions and their core competencies or capabilities are part of the external forces assessed. This competitor intelligence is also extremely guarded by organizations as intellectual property and trade secrets because this information is such a vital force to support command or dominance within an industry. This information represents asymmetrical data.

Are Americans aware of who and where their competitors are and what they are planning to do to gain a competitive advantage in the global economy? If your answer is “Yes”, than I believe you are ahead of most Americans in this regard.

Competitor intelligence as a force may also include customers, distribution and supply chain channels, marketing initiatives, sales figures, finances, research and development, organizational structure, operations, disruptive technologies, strategic plans, as well as culture.

There is a high probability that in each instance identified where an organization or business has failed, we would probably recognize that the company that failed did not obey the forces working against their firm and therefore could not command those forces. The successful organization identified, obeyed, or created the force and therefore was able to command the phenomenon.

Many of us know the Blockbuster example, where Netflix as a force began to erode their market share, but Blockbuster did not change. Then Redbox kiosk machines were added at local supermarkets, renting DVD’s at a third of the price of the brick and mortar format. Streaming movies on computers became much easier and reliable. Then we saw Blockbuster store locations rapidly disintegrate. Basically, Blockbuster hesitated in recognizing and responding to the creation of multiple forces in their industry, so they could command the force. When they did respond, it was too late.

In my first argument, my thesis is that change, as a force, will occur more rapidly than it has in the past. The force may be technological developments, an increase in the amount of data or analytical information (Big Data), competition, suppliers, new entrants into the industry, substitute products, the economy, new regulations or changing perceptions or buying patterns of consumers, to name a few.

In order to sustain a competitive edge in business, sports, education, or any endeavor, one must recognize and make the appropriate adjustment to forces existing in their environment. This awareness enables anyone to create a niche or imperfect competition through the asymmetrical information obtained from these forces.

In some current thinking models this approach is referred to as a Blue Ocean strategy where the red bloody waters of competition may move an organization or individual into clear water or the blue ocean of imperfect competition.

Whether the individual, community or organization are using knowledge and idea strategies including Bacon’s inductive empiricism, Porter’s I/O model, or a blue ocean strategy the knowledge worker will be the prime mover and catalyst behind, beneath and within these strategies in the near future.

Individuals and communities need to complete research which will take them into clear waters, so they may see all of the opportunities available in the new world economy.

Orgology

“Culture drives great results.

-Jack Welch

Part 2 – Organizational Culture and Organizational Climate

All corporate strategies begin with a decision to enter into a particular business. Once the executives determine they can simultaneously develop value innovation, product differentiation, and low cost structures that satisfy or creates a need that customers will pay for, the next decision is to establish the organizational culture and structure to enable the appropriate systems, policies, working relationships, and behaviors to drive great results toward their BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal).

I believe the following guidelines may be applicable to individuals and communities as well, as they think about their local, family and individual mindsets and structures.

For example, if a community decides they want to improve their conditions, there are some critical organizational structures they will need to establish first. They will first need to define the physical parameters of their community. They will then determine their output or goals they wish to achieve in forming a collaborative group. Thirdly, they will establish codes and ethical standards for all group members that support achievement of their goals. All members need to understand the hierarchal relationships and where authority is allocated under varying circumstances. What policies, rules, systems, and other infrastructure needs have to be acquired to meet their goals? How will success be measured? Which type of organizational structure is appropriate, and what will be the cultural norms everyone will be expected to comply with as a prerequisite for membership.

This is how every business, government, religion and organizational unit begins its existence.

Excerpts: Evolution of the Knowledge Worker: Transforming the Future U.S. Workforce

Some excerpts from my book “Evolution of the Knowledge Worker: Transforming the Future US Workforce”.

Pages 35-36 In recruitment and retention of knowledge workers, being inconsistent in executing your value systems is equivalent to being untruthful. Trust, as a perception, is the essential foundation in any relationship. If you are in a distrustful relationship you will no longer value the association or connection with the person or organization, even if you are being well compensated for continuing this relationship. In an idea economy, organizational cultures that do not instill trust as an input will prevent the intended effect of knowledge sharing, collaboration, and innovation as an output. Trust is essential to coordination and collaboration. This ideal and perception is important because the organization can then legitimately expect trust to reciprocate from the knowledge worker to the organization. Trust is the foundation upon which engagement is built. Pages 36-40 Global Cultures In Multi National Organizations (MNE’s), there are multiple complexities which naturally change business culture based on the national or regional geographic area. In multicultural international operating environments adjustments to organizational culture may need to be made due to the overriding national or local culture. In 1980, Geert Hofstede observed international employees at IBM and developed a theory of cross-cultural communication where he proposed various dimensions through which cultural values may be analyzed for differences as follows: Power Distance. This represents the varying perspectives within cultures regarding power and social inequalities through “boss-subordinate relationships” where employees will attempt to reduce the supervisor’s power as supervisors endeavor to expand their authority.

Black Swan and Transformation

Excerpts from Evolution of the Knowledge Worker: Transforming the Future U.S. Workforce

Part I:The Black Swan and Transformation

The Past

The past, current and future is connected.

The past has demonstrated that major world change during humankind’s written history over 12,000 years has Africa leading knowledge, development and prosperity for humankind for approximately 9,000 years, or 75% of this time period.

Western civilization appears in the history of humankind with Homer’s epic novels Iliad and Odyssey. Greece, being located near Egypt, allowed the Greeks to benefit from this short distance from the world’s dominant power. Each time significant western historical figures had problems they went into Egypt and came out with riches. Abraham (Genesis 12:16-20), Moses, Joseph, Socrates, and Jesus (Matthew 2: 13) all included. Greece’s significance during the classical and Hellenistic period is accounted as being dominant during the 300 year period from 600 BC to 300 BC. Roman civilization collapsed after almost 800 years of rule from 300 BC to 500 AD. Ironically, the period western civilization refers to as the Dark Ages coincided simultaneously with the period referred to as the Golden Age of Islam. This period of 500 AD to 1492 AD is best characterized by intellectual, social and economic decline in Europe with the opposite taking place in North Africa.

In fact, during this period, Timbuktu University, located in Mali, was considered the center of Islamic intelligence during this golden age. Additionally, Mali was the financial center of the world based on its deposits of gold. Modern western civilization began in 1492 and has continued for approximately 500 years.

The common factors that transformed these ages has been the diffusion of information and knowledge. Whenever information and knowledge has spread, it has created change. Information is available to all, it is fast, and is creating change for those groups that seek out information and knowledge and use it effectively.

This is the essence of the Information Age we are currently in.

The Current

Information availability has multiple effects both positive and negative depending on how it is used.

Since this access to information creates new knowledge, we have seen societies with billions of inhabitants position themselves well in a new global economy. China will overtake the U.S. as the top world GDP nation within the next 8-10 years. Asians will become the top worldwide consumer base within the next 3-5 years. People are living much longer than in previous decades due to technological advancements, more people are moving into urban versus rural areas, Asian children under age 34 are statistically much smarter than American children in the same age group. Asia makes everything while Americans stopped producing decades ago. Even with all these dynamics, America is expected to add $4 trillion in GDP over the next 8 years. Cars and planes can travel on their own, artificial intelligence is finally here after 25 years of research and development, and American companies broke records in profitability last year.

Meanwhile, we see illegal hacking, government spying, social media being used in unsocial ways and many people (not corporations) struggling in worse conditions in the U.S. and throughout the world. The world generates enough GDP so that every individual on this planet would earn $10, 500 each which means a family of 5 would have $52, 500 to spend. However, we know the opposite is true in many areas of the world, including the U.S. Our education system is falling further behind other emerging nations while at the same time the cost for education in the U.S. is continuing to skyrocket. There are certain people in the U.S. that do not want healthcare for all. This is especially true when it comes to healthcare for disadvantaged and poor individuals.

So if you understand how information has transformed the world in the past, and you have a perspective on what is going-on in the current global social, political and economic environment. It should enable synthesis to take place from these facts to make some predictions about the future.

Many CEO’s, executives and organizational leaders are confused with how to proceed in this complex and uncertain period called transformation. Transformation is a period like others in the past where the world is changing and those who recognize the changes taking place align themselves with the forces taking place gain an advantage in the future.

In this new Information Age it is the ability to access, interpret and use information effectively which gains a competitive advantage.

So where is the future?

The Future

Information is good. Knowing what to do with information is better.

There is so much information available today that no one person may be capable of deciphering it on their own. Accurately gathering, assessing and evaluating information in the future requires collaboration and association. Using everyone’s talent from the technological and engineering abilities of an adolescent to the experience and wisdom of the baby boomer is necessary to generate knowledge in a knowledge economy. Essentially, anyone will pay for your knowledge and information if they have a need for the information your group has developed.

This is referred to as research.

Research takes time, access to computers, organization, collaboration and desire.

Time and access to computers already exist. Organization, collaboration and desire exist in the mind. All of the tools necessary to forge a future of abundance for your community is within your reach if the perspective or black swan change event takes place.

My book provides details and models on how to proceed toward organizational and collaborative improvements to manage information and knowledge to your benefit. The major benefit many of us have is time. We need to use this time effectively.

My talk today was designed to create perspective where the traditional white swan is seen as a black swan. The black swan has all of the beauty and qualities of a white swan, but we never see black swans. See the black swan in your community and begin to establish the future for your community, friends and family together.

If you do not, no one else will do it for you!

Art Koonce is a visionary writer that provides his innovative perspective on change management, politics, history, and leadership development.  His upcoming book Quantum Change, will be available in late 2017.

Change Management Lessons from the 2016 Presidential Election

The 2016 presidential election was a change referendum. Americans voted for political, social, and economic change. This campaign season provides a unique opportunity to examine several change management concepts that apply to both the election and understanding organizational change philosophies.

Understanding Underlying Beliefs and Perspectives

The first two change concepts I cover come from Chris Argyris (1976) and Edgar Shein (1980) with augmentation from Albert Banduras (1989). In both change models the first two change scholars emphasized the importance of identifying underlying assumptions and beliefs amongst your group.

It is these sometimes hidden beliefs that represent true perceived organizational values and the actionable behaviors taken by employees as a result of these underlying ideals. Knowing these underlying beliefs will enable leaders to change cultural attitudes to align with strategic goals. Effective change implementation may begin once the entire organization operates with one vision and mission.

A popular visual description of this theory is the Titanic. As many now know, the Titanic was sunk by the invisible or underlying part of the iceberg. The Titanic could not maneuver around something which they could not see or understand. Such is the nature of change, organizational development and politics. Hillary Clinton was unprepared to strategize around the unknown beliefs of half of the voting electorate. Instead, Secretary Clinton characterized this large cohort electorate as a “basket of deplorables”.

President Elect Donald Trump possessed an instinct which enabled him to understand these underlying beliefs in a large portion of the US electorate. Beliefs about immigration, race, the political establishment, trade, jobs, etc. He tapped into these hidden beliefs because I believe he knew what actions and responses would reverberate if he said things no other politician was willing to say.

Senator Bernie Sanders had a similar, but not as effective impact on a large segment of the electorate when he spoke of a political revolution, equality, increased minimum wage, etc.

One of the many lessons for leaders and organizational development professionals from this election is that you ignore underlying assumptions and true beliefs and values at a risk. This is especially true when the organizational culture needs to change.

Single Loop and Double Loop Learning

However, Argyris Single Loop and Double Loop Learning model will demonstrate that these beliefs are symptoms of an overriding problem which I will cover in the “knowledge and innovation diffusion” section. In Argyris model, he demonstrates the importance of focusing on causes as opposed to symptoms as a corrective mechanism. If you address symptoms in change and not true causality, then it is synonymous with treating a fever when you really have pneumonia. In double loop learning, you understand that both the fever (actions) and the pneumonia (beliefs) must be addressed to get the desired results. This model also expands into Albert Bandura’s (1989) Social Cognitive Theory pertaining to efficacy (results). Since efficacy is proven to influence future actions, efficacy also reinforces and emboldens beliefs. This looping process ultimately becomes cyclical with experiences and beliefs beginning and driving the process. The ultimate results achieved in a change initiative will depend on the beliefs of any nation, society, organization, community, or family.

The organizational beliefs and values represent the culture. This is why Jack Welch said “culture drives great results.”

However, while this model has relevance, there is another loop worth considering. That is veridical perception. Again, Bandura’s organizational development model adds experience as a key ingredient to establishing beliefs and values. Experience drives beliefs. Whether the beliefs derived from experience are valid or random is at the core of understanding veridical perception.

Three Stages of Culture

In Edgar Shein’s 3 stages of culture model (begun in 1980), he is next to Argyris in identifying underlying assumptions and beliefs as a critical success factor to enabling change. Shein did expand on the Argyris model to place increased emphasis on artifacts as influencers and by-products of beliefs. The artifacts are essentially actionable and visible things we do, where beliefs are invisible.

President Elect Donald Trump used the inverted pyramid version of this model to communicate and reinforce the values and beliefs through artifacts. The stories he told, nicknames given to other politicians, who he praised and desired to punish, symbols he used, who his advisors were, phrases and words he used, etc., were all examples of artifacts. The manner in which President Elect Trump utilized artifacts to connect with beliefs of many Americans was a critical success factor in his election.

How tactical organizational development professionals and leaders are at ensuring the artifacts utilized by their organizations reinforce and influence the values, behaviors, and beliefs that are aligned with achieving strategic organizational goals, will also determine the success rate of change.

Energy Levels Influence Change

A successful CEO and venture capitalist once told me that one of the most important factors to evaluate in people during change is their energy level, then their attitude. I remembered this as I listened to President Elect Donald Trump level personal attacks against his top two opponents. He challenged both Governor Jeb Bush and Secretary Hillary Clinton as “low energy candidates” during debates. His symbolic message was that neither candidate, unlike himself, would be able to create the change Americans desired.

High Energy          (1) Positive Attitude   Change Agent	High Energy       (2) Negative Attitude   Disrupter
Low Energy           (3) Positive Attitude   Impartial	Low Energy        (4) Negative Attitude   Skeptic

Change Management Considerations: “Changing People or Changing People”

Over twenty years ago, I worked for venture capitalists specializing in turnaround business projects. During a discussion with a senior executive about change and people, he explained that a major change consideration as part of a change management process would be whether to “change people or change people”. What he meant by this succinct statement was that considerations and on-going evaluations would be conducted to determine whom, when, where, and how the organization would transform (change) skills and behaviors and/or replace (change) employees. He basically reinforced the need for a two-pronged human resource change strategy.

Twenty years ago, organizational commitments to changing skills and behaviors as an investment in human capital was a common human resource practice. This practice, in part, is responsible for the 1800% US GDP growth over fifty years from 1965 to 2015. Over the last fifteen years, more lean human resource practices and trends towards eliminating or replacing employees as business panacea has been a predominant feature of the human resource landscape. The 2007 economic crisis accelerated this trend.

Essentially, the pendulum has shifted back and forth between these two change management considerations. In the past, each shift on the pendulum swing has been to the extreme right or left. These shifts have then remained frozen for an extended period of time before another force moves the pendulum in the opposite direction. However, the forces driving the next human resource shifts will require more flexibility between these change management concepts. Here are 5 reasons why swift pendulum adjustments will become the normative human resource practice in the future.

1. New Information Age Productivity Model

The Industrial Age business productivity model based on physical labor as a means has transformed to TFP (Total Factor Productivity), or MFP (Multi Factor Productivity). TFP is based on accounting for at least 60% of growth through technological innovation. While this is still labor related at this time (depending on cognitive intelligence advances), it is ideas from human brains representing this human mode and means of production.

Organizations embracing this bottom-up approach to growth and productivity will realize that this is a major paradigm shift in how human resources will be utilized in the future; what transformations will be required for those in leadership roles; and why human resource professionals will need to be re-skilled.

2. Re-Skilling Human Resources

The new mode and means of production in a global economy will necessitate varying degrees of strategic planning, organizational development, cultural alignment, and change techniques designed to alter the way managers and employees look at working and the workplace in the near future. Human resource professionals will need to acquire the skills to be primary change agents and consultants to operational leaders in this transformation.

Essentially, human resources will be asked to stop following and start leading and advising leadership on what the organization will need to do to transform into this new productivity model. Moving from a transactional and on-call operating mode towards a research and think tank mode represents a major skill and operating shift for many human resource professionals.

3. Demographic and Economic Shifts

The youngest Traditionalist turns 72 years-old next year. Most from this group have retired from the workplace. However, COLA, eventual social security and Medicare amendments, and longer life expectancies will prolong the work periods for certain members of this group. The youngest Baby Boomer turns 53 years-old next year and over 10,000 retire every day in the US. This group also has a vast reservoir of tacit knowledge and many will still want to do some type of work after retirement, at their discretion. Baby boomers have also been the US greatest global economic competitive advantage over the last half of the twentieth century. Generation X will be 38 to 52 years old next year, and will be critical to bridging gaps between out-going and incoming generational workplace groups. The last of Millennial will be graduating from high school next year. Within 4-5 years this large cohort group will be fully integrated into the workforce. A new STEM developed group of workers which I call the iGeneration, will begin entering the workforce within the next 2 years.

The most fascinating part of this demographic shift is that all five groups will be part of the human resource landscape within the next two years and human resources will have to develop strategies for these five generational groups in a global economic environment. As an example, if you work for an MNE (multi-national enterprise) in human resources, the best and brightest within Millennial come from 2.4 billion people globally instead of 92 million in the US. The competition for talent in a TFP modality will require a global networked human resource strategy.

Economically, financial instability in other networked and interconnected markets; shifts in purchasing power parity; political and military conflicts, faster growth in Asian markets and corresponding decreases in total percentage of global GDP among advanced western economies will, amongst many other factors, accelerate change.

4. Speed of Change Dynamics

The easiest way to describe this concept is a mindset in today’s world that understands; whatever ideas or technologies are introduced, are essentially old and outdated the moment they are introduced. The global focus on innovation and knowledge diffusion in a networked economy guarantees a constant flow of disruptive technological advances that alters industries and fortunes in the world.

Speed of change will simultaneously create and eliminate jobs based-on knowledge and technology diffusion.

5. Uncertainties with Technological Job Growth

As disruptive technologies continue to speed-up, what we know for sure is that innovators and early adopters will benefit from new technological advancements, and that business will purchase these new technologies if the technology can increase productivity and bottom-line results. Many times, these bottom-line results will emanate from reductions in employee headcounts and payroll. We are becoming surer that many of these technologies like cognitive intelligence, robotics, driverless vehicles, 3-D printing, etc. will eliminate millions of traditional jobs. What we are very unsure about is what new jobs will come from these technologies, and how we will create new jobs for those displaced due to disruptive innovation.

For example, we did not know what types of jobs would come from cable TV, the internet, or the cell phone as they were introduced as mainstream technologies over two decades ago. But they employ millions of people today. Additionally, the time gap between disruption (elimination) and development (addition) of jobs has reduced over time. Thereby , shortening the pendulum shift.

These five reasons to understand changing people or changing people represent a short list of environmental forces moving the pendulum shift from change involving replacement of employees to change related to engagement and development of employees at a more rapid pace then over the last 50 years.

The kinetic energy will be in the quick, short shifts in the middle of the pendulum as opposed to the extreme swings on the outer edges we have become accustomed to in many change considerations.

As a solution, I explain many of the forces, concepts, and models to consider in information age strategic alignment in